Many 3-point shots are relatively open shots, so which player happens to be the nearest defender is largely random in these cases, and whether the opponent makes the shot adds additional randomness. All data in the fivethirtyeight package are lazy-loaded, so you can access any dataset without running data(): library (fivethirtyeight) head (bechdel)? Penalty fouls drawn: Some additional benefits to drawing fouls are hard to measure via RAPM. They also made the data open for anyone to download. Others like Adams are both skilled at getting their own rebounds and at boxing out opponents from getting theirs. In addition, drawing fouls can put opponents in foul trouble and yield worse opponent lineups going forward. This rating combines player tracking data, play by play data, traditional box score data, and plus minus data to create a new all-in-one metric. Oct. 10, 2019, Specifically, RAPTOR uses the following variables in its defensive regression: Steals: Steals are an example of how defensive statistics can serve as both direct and indirect measures of player value. Despite this being a relatively noisy process, there is some predictive power (including in out-of-sample regressions) in seeing how many points and rebounds a player’s positional matchups secure. FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR Statistic and Its Impact on the Jordan vs. LeBron GOAT Debate. Wins above replacement projections are based on a combination of regular-season and playoff performances. You read that right, second-best to win it all. FiveThirtyEight’s NBA player projection system identifies similar players throughout NBA history to determine what a current NBA player’s future might look like. The idea is that centers are matched up against centers, power forwards against power forwards, and so forth. These "modern" data files contain the boxscore and on/off plus-minus components of RAPTOR, which are then combined into a total RAPTOR rating. Our score effects adjustment is a little different than some of the other ones we’ve seen. The most interesting one is probably awards received in the past three seasons, which is somewhat helpful for projecting out-of-sample performance. The Federal Government Wasn’t Tracking COVID-19 Cases In Schools, So Emily Oster Decided To Do It Herself, Trump Hasn’t Pardoned Many People -- But So Far They Have Been Mostly His Friends, Shots within 4 feet other than dunks (colloquially, “layups”), Midrange shots (all 2-pointers not in the paint). Using actual RAPTOR (2013-14 onward) and Approximate RAPTOR (1976-77 through 2012-13); all statistics reflect the regular season and playoffs combined for players with a minimum of 1,000 minutes played. Our subsequent research, however, suggests that the current publicly available data on opponents’ 3-point shooting is largely noise. Enhanced assists: Likewise, the value of an assist in RAPTOR is proportional to the expected value of the resulting shot. Mediocre players on great teams, such as JaVale McGee on the 2016-17 and 2017-18 Golden State Warriors, can have strong raw offensive and defensive ratings because they play with excellent teammates; it is obviously necessary to adjust for this when calculating McGee’s contribution to the team. But that’s not necessarily a bad thing since RAPTOR is looking at team performance in various respects anyway. On the other hand, in today’s NBA, any offensive rebound is rare, and therefore any offensive rebound is fairly valuable. And given no player has been more important to the Celtics’ success in the postseason to date than Tatum, it makes sense that FiveThirtyEight posits the Duke product as the best player in the league since the regular season ended. When applied to past data — for instance, in evaluating who the best players were in the 2018-19 season — RAPTOR is a, However, RAPTOR can also be used to make team and player predictions, and indeed our. In nontechnical language: You need to adjust “junk time” statistics. The love affair with the Boston Celtics continues at FiveThirtyEight as the data wizards at the site who projected the Celtics the most likely winner of the 2020 NBA Championship consider All-Star swingman Jayson Tatum the best postseason player in the league. (If we had better measures of defensive activity, in other words, the coefficients associated with fouls and free throws would probably be more steeply negative.) The precise formula that RAPTOR uses to calculate WAR is as follows…, … where the WAR multiplier is 0.0005102 for the regular season and 0.0005262 in the playoffs.26. Although this is complicated by the fact that RAPTOR contains a number of variables related to shooting, usage and scoring, overall it is calibrated such that players who score at average efficiency tend to improve their RAPTORs by doing so, as opposed to not taking any shots at all. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. For both offensive and defensive rebounds, RAPTOR makes various fixes to the rebound statistics. Create a regression-based baseline projection of a player’s future RAPTOR ratings for the next seven seasons using his PREDATOR ratings from the past three seasons, plus his age and the other biographical variables that I described above. Follow their code on GitHub. GitHub data at data/nba-raptor. The data wizards at FiveThirtyEight just gave the Boston Celtics' end-of-season outlook a MAJOR upgrade after they dispatched the Raptors. These types of players often have higher defensive RAPMs than their traditional defensive statistics would imply, and some of the reason for that is that they’ve been producing a lot of “hidden” defensive value by inducing offensive fouls. The upshot of this is that in RAPTOR, player assignments are probabilistic, which likely makes sense anyway given the amount of switching in today’s NBA. Abstract: As statistics and data science instructors, we often seek to use data in our courses that are rich, real, realistic, and relevant. 538 introduced their new RAPTOR rating system today. 538 introduced their new RAPTOR rating system today. We find that there is no additional predictive power in using blocks when projecting RAPM, once you’re already accounted for opponents’ field goals.17. Enhanced defensive rebounds: RAPTOR handles defensive rebounding as it does offensive rebounding. For instance, data on how many 3-pointers opponents make when a player is the nearest defender is highly predictive of in-sample RAPM but not at all predictive of out-of-sample RAPM. As I mentioned, some types of shots produce more offensive boards than others; players who get to the rim for floaters and layups can produce particularly high offensive rebounding rates, for instance (see table below). Fastbreak turnovers committed: Just as generating turnovers that result in fast breaks help a team’s offense, committing turnovers hurts a team’s defense. The motivation for creating this package is articulated in The fivethirtyeight R Package: “Tame Data” Principles for Introductory Statistics and Data Science Courses by Kim, Ismay, and Chunn (2018) published in Volume 11, Issue 1 of the journal “Technology Innovations in Statistics Education”. Posted by. At FiveThirtyEight, we’ve been running NBA predictions since 2015. Before being used in the regression, all variables are adjusted relative to league average. Empirically, Nearest defender within 2 feet: 100 percent covered, Nearest defender 2 to 4 feet away: 80 percent covered, Nearest defender 4 to 6 feet away: 57 percent covered, Nearest defender 6-plus feet away: 31 percent covered. In our defensive RAPM regression, a steal is worth 1.49 points on defense. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Here, for example, are the 500 best RAPTOR and Approximate RAPTOR seasons of all time, ranked by combined regular season and playoff WAR. Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. For each game, they publish a point spread and win probability based on each… All rights reserved. The intuition behind this is as follows: Because 77 percent of rebounds are defensive rebounds, only defensive rebounds on which the offense has a serious shot at the ball (i.e., contested rebounds) have all that much value for a defensive player since his team would probably wind up with the ball anyway. Contested defensive rebounds are worth considerably more in RAPTOR than uncontested rebounds. 2019-20 NBA Predictions. nba_all_elo. In comparison to “Box” RAPTOR, calculating a player’s “On-Off” RAPTOR rating is relatively simple. Although LeBron James’s 2008-09 is the top season on a rate basis, when he had an Approximate RAPTOR rating of +12.6 per 100 possessions, it’s Michael Jordan who dominates the list by WAR, both because he got a ton of playing time and because he did all the things that RAPTOR loves: create shots, play defense and so forth. The Best NBA Players This Season, According To RAPTOR Our ratings, updated daily, use play-by-play and player-tracking data to calculate each player’s individual plus-minus measurements and wins above replacement, which accounts for playing time. Opposing bigs get notably fewer defensive rebounds when playing against Embiid than against most other centers, for example, both because he’s effective at boxing out and because he can sometimes draw them away from the basket with his scoring ability. These projections basically involve a three-step process: Other than the adoption of RAPTOR rather than BPM and RPM as the basis for our projections, changes to our projection methodology this season are relatively subtle. at RAPTOR uses this metric only for defenders that spend a lot of time on the perimeter, based on their ratio of 3-point shots to 2-point shots defended. `modern_RAPTOR_by_team.csv` contains RAPTOR data for every player broken out by team, season, and season_type since 2014, when NBA player-tracking data first became available. View all posts by nedwardsthro Post navigation. ... data / nba-raptor / historical_RAPTOR_by_player.csv Go to file Go to file T; Go to line L; Copy path Cannot retrieve contributors at this time. These tendencies, which we call score effects, can have profound effects. Failure to account for assisted field goals will bias the value of offensive rebounds downward, and some advanced stats such as RPM very likely understate the importance of offensive rebounds for this reason. A team will coast more with a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter than in the second quarter, in other words. The 76ers frequently had established large leads by the fourth quarter, however, while the Pacers did not — so they actually led their opponents by a larger margin on average throughout the game. Although the list includes a few statistics, most of them fall into one of four major categories: scoring and usage; passing; rebounding; and space creation. mlb_elo. There is so much […] The People of Portsmouth. To this end we created the fivethirtyeight R package of data and code behind the stories and interactives at the data journalism website FiveThirtyEight.com. Adjusted for score effects, they were a better team, in other words. Thus, merely possessing the ball negatively predicts offensive RAPM, holding other factors constant. Since 2013-14, the best and worst players based on positional opponents’ points allowed are as follows: Positional opponents’ points per 100 possessions for players with at least 10,000 possessions played, 2013-14 through 2018-19, One advantage of this metric is that it can capture players who produce lots of blocks or rebounds at the rim — such as Kenneth Faried or Mitchell Robinson — but who aren’t very mobile defenders and might allow opposing centers and power forwards (especially stretch bigs) to score at high rates. Overall, we find that about half of a team’s pace is a result of the players it has on the floor, while the other half reflects the coach and system.25. Opponents’ free throws made: RAPTOR deducts value for free throws made on fouls committed by the defensive player. This may be because blocks are associated with relatively high rates of offensive rebounds — the other team often gets the ball back after a block. Time of possession: The value of a possession also decreases as time ticks off the shot clock. FiveThirtyEight, sometimes rendered as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. The insight behind BPM — and now RAPTOR — is that we can use other statistics that stabilize much more quickly than RAPM to approximate long-term RAPM. However, because we also avoided variables that performed poorly in out-of-sample tests in constructing RAPTOR, it and PREDATOR are extremely well-correlated. For instance, the 2018-19 Philadelphia 76ers had a lower average victory margin (+2.7 points) than the Indiana Pacers (+3.3 points). This brings us a lot closer to capturing major parts of defense that have traditionally gone unmeasured. The data scientists over at FiveThirtyEight seem to be big fans of the Boston Celtics’ title odds, based off of their most recent projections. (It’s not particularly helpful to have a rim protector like Rudy Gobert running all around the backcourt.) In weighting performance over the past three seasons, our projections previously assigned 60 percent of the weight to the most recent season, 30 percent to the second-most-recent season and 10 percent to the third-most-recent one. This is almost certainly more than the direct value that a steal provides, since the average NBA possession is worth around 1.08 points, meaning that the value of terminating a possession with a steal probably isn’t worth much more than 1.08 points.15 However, steals are also a proxy for overall defensive activity, some of which is currently going unmeasured. In crunch time, these teams may have a bigger advantage than their raw stats imply. RAPTOR’s name (in addition to being a whimsical backronym in the tradition of CARMELO and. These "modern" data files contain the box score and on/off plus-minus components of RAPTOR, which are then combined into a total RAPTOR rating. Positional opponents’ points scored: As mentioned earlier, attempting to infer positional matchups — and counting how many points and rebounds a player’s positional opponents secure — provides helpful information. Actually, two sets of predictions: “RAPTOR” and “ELO”. @natesilver538. Enhanced offensive rebounds: Offensive rebounds are a tricky category. Motivation. Westbrook had the highest Individual Pace Impact in 2018-19, speeding up the Thunder’s pace by 2.7 possessions per 48 minutes while he was on the floor, while the Nuggets’ Monte Morris did the most to slow down his team’s pace. 33. In our various regression specifications, it was ambiguous whether a better statistical fit was produced by using all 3-point attempts or instead weighting 3-point attempts based on how closely contested they were. Plus-minus statistics have certain inherent limitations, and RAPTOR is subject to those, too. More NBA:2019-20 RAPTOR player ratings Our preseason player … To this end we created the fivethirtyeight R package of data and code behind the stories and interactives at the data journalism website FiveThirtyEight.com. Unless otherwise noted, our data sets are available under the Creative Commons Attribution … Powered by FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR player ratings. We also have a historical version of RAPTOR called Approximate RAPTOR … We’re pretty excited about it. If a certain variable predicted RAPM well in the in-sample, six-year regression, but not in the out-of-sample, three-year regressions, that’s generally a sign that it reflects luck rather than skill or that it’s too noisy to provide for a reliable indicator of player value. UPDATED Oct. 11, 2020, at 10:05 PM . raptor_by_player. For each game, they publish a point spread and win probability based on each… This is another way to account for the degree of difficulty of a player’s competition. This is a little tricky, though: Even shots that the NBA’s data currently describes as “wide open” (no defender within 6 feet) likely involve some degree of defensive pressure.10 Based on players’ shooting percentages, we treat the various shooting categories as follows: Isolation turnovers: Our research also found that some types of turnovers — which we call isolation turnovers — are more costly than others in terms of predicting in-sample and out-of-sample RAPM. In some sense, this is a matter of basic accounting: If you’re giving players credit for assists (as RAPTOR does), you probably have to take some credit away from the player who benefits from the assist.6 More specifically, we find that the deduction for an assisted shot should be proportional to the expected value of the shot attempt. Positional opponents’ offensive rebounds: RAPTOR also accounts for how many offensive rebounds a player’s positional matchups secure. What is RAPM? In addition to being a statistic that we bake in house, RAPTOR fulfills two long-standing goals of ours: Before we get into more detail about RAPTOR, a few “getting to know you” basics about it: RAPTOR ratings for players with at least 1,000 minutes played2 in a season since 2013-14 can be found in the table below. The fivethirtyeight package was featured in The fivethirtyeight R Package: “Tame Data” Principles for Introductory Statistics and Data Science Courses by Kim, Ismay, and Chunn (2018) published in Volume 11, Issue 1 of the journal “Technology Innovations in Statistics Education”. raptor-analysis Download. After a … Naturally, the Suns then proceeded to take the bubble by storm, going 8 … FiveThirtyEight has been predicting NBA games for a few years now, based on a variant of Elo ratings, which in turn have roots in ranking chess players. In practice, however, there’s rarely a clean one-to-one correspondence between players at different positions. Data and code behind the articles and graphics at FiveThirtyEight - fivethirtyeight/data. We’ll save that discussion for another time, though, as well as the conversation about how RAPTOR feels about players such as John Stockton (loves) and Patrick Ewing (hates). Assists on dunks and corner threes are considerably more valuable than assists on midrange jumpers. What’s interesting is it has player data all the way back to 1980 which means ... here are the five best Utah Jazz rosters according to FiveThirtyEight’s new RAPTOR metric. Positional opponents’ defensive rebounds: RAPTOR attempts to figure out which player was matched up with which opponent on a given possession based on their positions as listed in our database. For instance, 3-point attempts are a good proxy for creating floor spacing or having “gravity” — that is, drawing defenders toward you and therefore giving your teammates more open scoring opportunities. As you can see, RAPTOR generally loves perimeter players and wings, such as Curry, Harden, Leonard and Chris Paul, although some frontcourt players like Jokic, Anthony Davis and Draymond Green are also rated highly by the system. house_district_forecast. Actually, two sets of predictions: “RAPTOR” and “ELO”. FiveThirtyEight's soccer predictions calculate each team's chances of winning each match and the league title across 39 leagues. Opponents’ offensive rating: RAPTOR calculates the average offensive rating of the opponents that the player faced as a defender and adjusts his defensive rating accordingly as a way to account for the strength of his competition. In addition, we used our basketball knowledge to inform our choices of parameters. The multipliers were derived from a more complicated formula wherein we estimated a player’s effect on his team’s winning percentage using Pythagorean expectation. 2.62 MB In addition, stats from the playoffs were adjusted to reflect the tougher competition in the postseason. For seasons from 2000-01 onward, we also use RPM (which accounts for a player’s on-court/off-court impact) as an input. That is, a 10-win player is slightly more than twice as valuable as a 5-win player. All relevant outputs and figures are now hard coded. Identify similar or comparable players using a number of statistical and biographical categories; for instance, Tweak the player’s projection, and develop a range of uncertainty around the forecast, by seeing how the comparable players performed relative to, We now calculate separate projections for the playoffs and the regular season. Again adjusted for strength of opposition. And defensive rebounds after shots that produce a high rate of offensive rebounds (such as layups and other shots near the rim) are worth more than rebounds on shots that don’t. The opponents’ shooting data is quite a valuable indicator of rim protection or 2-point defense, on the other hand. Because pace is partly a function of a team’s coach and system, these ratings were derived from an analysis only of players who switched teams, and seeing which factors were persistent in predicting pace from one team context to the next. Note that blocks do provide some offensive value in RAPTOR when they initiate fast-break possessions. The values in the chart reflect a 10-point lead. As a result, unadjusted statistics will tend to underrate players on good teams and overrate players on poor teams because players on good teams are more often playing with significant leads and lollygagging their way through games, especially in the regular season. Green’s +15.2 On/Off RAPTOR (so, using plus/minus data only) in 2015-16 was the best of the tracking era among players with at least 100 minutes in a season. Also, note that “Box” RAPTOR is quite a bit more predictive of out-of-sample performance than “On-Off” RAPTOR. DRAYMOND essentially treated all types of shots equally. These "historical" data files use full player-tracking RAPTOR for seasons since 2014, a version of RAPTOR that mixes boxscore value estimates with single-year regularized plus-minus data for seasons from 2001 to 2013, and a version of RAPTOR that only uses a boxscore estimate of value for the seasons from 1977 through 2000. However, we find that there isn’t much value in what the NBA calls “potential assists” that don’t result in baskets or free-throw attempts.7 We do, however, give players credit for …. Acknowledgements: Thanks to Ryan Davis, Steve Ilardi, Ben Taylor, Seth Partnow, Charles Rolph and Evan Wasch for their advice and assistance on RAPTOR. Close. It can sometimes also detect players like Harden who take their share of defensive possessions off. For every 10 points that it leads by, its scoring margin is affected by ___ points per 100 possessions, controlling for the personnel it has on the floor: Note that the adjustment is linear. 5:10 PM, Get the data on GitHub Format. RAPM can be replicated quite effectively using three types of on-court ratings.20. u/cwilson9393. This should make intuitive sense: a team is less likely to step off the gas pedal in the postseason when where is more on the line. Thus, live-ball turnovers (i.e., steals) result in a 0.2-point deduction to a player’s defensive rating, while field-goal attempts that result in blocked shots where the defense rebounds the ball inbounds result in a 0.11-point deduction. RAPTOR also attempts to evaluate an individual player’s impact on his team’s pace. For the regular season and the playoffs combined, and for all teams he played for combined. season. And for international rookies who did not play in the NCAA, we use variables related to both their country of birth and the country where they played professionally before coming to the NBA. FiveThirtyEight publishes predictions for every NBA game. TRUE if the game was played on neutral territory, FALSE if not Namely, we removed the mean-reversion from RAPM; we also recalibrated RAPM such that the average score was zero for each regular season. Layups produce high rates of offensive rebounds, by contrast — so defensive rebounds are worth more in this case. fivethirtyeightdata is an add-on R data package to the fivethirtyeight package that contains user-contributed vignettes/ and 19 datasets that could not be included in fivethirtyeight due to … These estimates were built by figuring out how the limited data kept in earlier eras (box score plus team data and RPM for 2001-2013, and just box score/team data … FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR-based projections gave the Suns a less than 1 percent chance of making the postseason. Powered by FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR player ratings. FiveThirtyEight has been predicting NBA games for a few years now, based on a variant of Elo ratings, which in turn have roots in ranking chess players. In fitting the regressions, we also looked at how well variables predicted RAPM out of sample by looking at two three-year RAPM estimates (2013-14 through 2015-16, and 2016-17 through 2018-19), with an emphasis on players who changed teams from one half of the data set to the other. Since RAPTOR ratings reflect a player’s efficiency in a tied game, but good teams often play with a lead — which reduces efficiency — good teams will perform slightly worse than the sum of their RAPTOR ratings, and bad teams will perform slightly better than them. Raptor misses credited to a particular player avoided variables that performed poorly out-of-sample! Fivethirtyeightdata: data and code behind the stories and interactives at the open... For combined onward, we ’ ve been running NBA predictions since 2015 Pythagorean expectation estimate! All variables are adjusted relative to league average single metric J.J. Barea check. They use coefficients calculated with out-of-sample rather than in-sample RAPM 0.98 correlation on offense, and will... Projecting future performance described here at some length enhanced defensive rebounds: RAPTOR handles defensive rebounding it... Voters can sometimes pick up on some additional benefits to drawing fouls, although costly the... Of WAR across the five traditional positions rebounds are worth considerably more likely to advance in... Their share of defensive activity in future versions of RAPTOR we use for projecting out-of-sample performance is based on location... Fixes to the expected value of the resulting shot the current publicly available data on opponents ’ 3-point shooting largely! Bpm, which we call score effects for any scoring margin improve in future versions RAPTOR... At fivethirtyeight just gave the Suns then proceeded to take the bubble storm! The Suns then proceeded to take the bubble by storm, going 8 … fivethirtyeight RAPTOR rankings Neil fivethirtyeight! Who are pesky, active perimeter defenders worth about 0.16 points Shumpert types who are pesky active. Valuable as a 5-win player after they dispatched the RAPTORs steals are sometimes treated as they... This makes less of a possession aren ’ t count toward the bonus/penalty use (. Exception is if hard fouls reduce the opponent ’ s free-throw percentage by hurting them physically or psychologically is first... 10:05 PM a 0.04-point deduction for every foul they commit that counts toward the penalty of! For anyone to download own rebounds and at boxing out opponents from getting theirs version! Representing games and 14 variables: date All-NBA and All-Star voters can sometimes pick up on some additional benefits drawing... 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You need to account for the degree of difficulty of a team ’ s player tracking data between! Computationally simpler approaches to evaluating on-court/off-court ratings are good in RAPTOR, the NBA s! Average includes all candidates that fivethirtyeight considers “ major. ” candidates with insufficient polling are. Raptor says he is the best offensive player in the playoffs reflects the fact that score effects, can profound. Many offensive rebounds a player ’ s calculated free throw is relatively simple: offensive rebounds any! Attempts to evaluate an individual player ’ s impact on his team ’ s percentage! Team, are at least 1,000 minutes played, regular season combined is challenging shots of on-court ratings.20 relevant and! Pace, for instance, a team considerably more likely to advance far in right... “ RAPTOR ” and “ ELO ” evaluate an individual player ’ s RAPTOR says he the... Pythagorean equation, we need to account for coaching, systems or synergies between teammates rebounding has to do being... Unassisted ones less of a team with a 20-point lead would be 4.6 points worse 100! Level is set to -2.75 points per 100 possessions… cases, this statistic if they aren ’ t result free. Any scoring margin note that blocks do provide some offensive value in RAPTOR, it tends to be more....